I had the good fortune of attending the TechStars Seattle demo day last week, and thought it might be interesting to compare it to my own AngelPad demo day in San Francisco this spring. First - congratulations to all the teams! It's a really strong batch of companies with some great pitches.

Quick backstory - my cofounder Julius and I took our own startup Shopobot through the AngelPad accelerator in SF this year. That was incredibly helpful to us - with their mentorship we had a super successful launch and quickly raised a seed round. The pivotal moment in that process was the "demo day", where we got to give a highly polished pitch to a room full of investors, and that marked the kickoff to our fundraising.

A few months later, we decided to move our startup from SF to Seattle because of some weird politics in California. (this is a whole other story)

We ended up renting office space in the TechStars / Founders Coop building in SLU Seattle, and so we found ourselves sitting among 10 TechStars companies going through an accelerator just like we'd done a few months earlier.  We got to know these companies over the last few months, and I got to sit in on their pitches last week. I wasn't involved in the actual TechStars program, so to be fair I'm only comparing the demo day experiences here..

DEMO DAY SHOWDOWN

Seattle	San Francisco
Venue
Showbox Sodo nightclub - a huge space with a stage. Approx 500 people attended the demo, mostly made up of investors / press / and some friends & family. Guests like me were segregated up in the bar area, so I couldn’t mingle with investors & press (suppose that's fair).	The AngelPad office in Soma. We demoed in the same space where we worked - a much smaller venue that required a very limited invitation list. We ended up having a morning and afternoon session so we could pitch to more investors (not sure how many exactly, maybe 150-200 total).
Introductions
Andy Sack who runs TechStars hosted the overall event, but for the actual pitches each team was introduced by a different person - generally someone who was already an investor. This was fantastic, because it gave social proof from someone who was willing to get up and pump the company and briefly explain why they're backing a winner. Then the presentor giving the pitch would come up on stage while their song played.  ("eye of the tiger.."  :)	Thomas Korte who leads AngelPad was our MC and host. We also had a single team member presenting, but our entire team was "on stage" with us during the pitch. The other teams were backstage, so we didn't actually get to watch each other’s pitches - but we'd seen them all a million times over the previous weeks as we helped each other refine them.
The pitch
Pitches were around 7 minutes each, which was a lot of time and allowed them to tell a pretty deep story about their background, product, market, traction. Basic format was a slide deck projected on a huge screen. Some of the teams' products are based on slick UI, and they had appropriatly slick slides.	Pitches were 2 minutes each. Yup. It took weeks of prep to polish our story down to two minutes, with the goal being to pique the investors' interest to get a meeting, and then give a deeper pitch in person. Every word and pause was deliberate.
Talking $$$
Every team announced how much they were raising, and how much they'd raised so far. I won't put numbers here, but every team had what I consider a significant start to their round, or were already profitable. All the teams had at least some room left in their round.	We were generally advised to hold off fundraising until demo day, since once fundraising begins it can snowball and become the only thing you can focus on. There was also some tension with a previous class where a company completely finished their round before demo day. Even those of us who already had commitments were quiet about them during the demo.
Audience
A lot of the messaging during the introductions was around promoting the idea of entrepreneurship, and the excitement and prestige of investing and supporting the Seattle tech scene. I don’t know the exact makeup of the audience, but that seems tailored more to an Angel investor audience.	Our audience was made up of Silicon Valley VCs, and some very active Angels. I don't remember any messaging around selling the dream of investing in startups, since that's basically those folks’ day job.
Networking
Guests like me were kicked out after the demos, and the companies stayed to meet with investors and have a dinner and then a party.  It sounded like a good chance to talk and get to know some of the investors.	Intense power mingling! Goal for every team member was to split up and get as many intros and meetings as possible. It was all very efficient - the short pitch gave investors just enough to get interested, so they'd have to commit to a meeting if they wanted to learn more. Then we repeated the entire thing in the afternoon for a different batch of investors. In that one day were able to book a lot of meetings, and that was the official beginning of our fundraising push.

I learned a lot about this batch of TechStars companies from their pitches and I was impressed. There are some very big businesses possible here, and a lot of impressive progress and demos. Seattle obviously doesn't have the same size of startup scene as San Francisco (nowhere does), but the quality I saw was very high.  I would say Seattle seems like a great place to be an Angel investor or VC.

Congrats to the companies that demo'd!

likebright.com  beamitmobile.com  blueboxnow.com  everymove.com  flexminder.com  

gochime.com  grouptalent.com  romotive.com  fireplace.rs  vizify.com

And if you want to see the suprising truth about how often stores change their prices, check out our startup Shopobot!

Join now (it's free!)

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We all have come to know Apple’s product release cycles very well. They typically update every product line about once a year, which keeps retail prices pretty steady. But what happens behind the scenes, in used marketplaces? One thing we’ll look at is the relationship between used inventory (the amount of listings on Amazon Marketplace) and the average price of all listings. Economics 101 tells us that when supply increases, prices will go down. We expect this to be at least somewhat true, but exactly how much variance is caused by increases in supply quantity? Luckily, at Shopobot we have all the data we need to find that out. The three Apple Products we'll be analyzing are:

iPod Touch 2 8GB

iPod Touch 3 32GB

Macbook Pro 13" (MC374LL/A)

Lets dive in and take a look at what we’ve found:

See the full gallery on Posterous

There is definitely some relation between used supply and price, but exactly how much? Well, the r-values (a measure of correllation) for the three data sets are -.69, -.69, and -.75. The r-squared values (r*r) are .48, .48, and .45. Without getting too much into the statistics, this measurement states that about 45-48% of the variance in price can be attributed to changes in supply (the amount of used listings on the Amazon Marketplace).

This is definitely interesting, but what else can the variance in price be attributed to? The most obvious other factor is devaluation over time. We assume that all products in consumer electronics devalue at some rate. But exactly how consistent is this devaluation and can it be measured? With Shopobot’s data, of course it can.

Here is a time series graph for the price of two iPod Touch products on the Amazon Used Marketplace. 

Over the long term, the devaluation in the used market is pretty consistent across products. By getting the linear regression for both data sets, we can find the slope, or average price drop per day. For the more expensive iPod Touch 3 32GB, the average price drop per day is −.223. For the iPod Touch 2 8GB, this value is -.101. This means that, over the long term, you can expect the lowest price for all used listings to decrease at a rate of about 22 and 10 cents per day, respectively. For the Macbook Pro, because the price is much higher, we can expect it to devalue at a higher rate. By using the same model as before, we can put this at -.96. Over the long term, the daily low price of this Macbook Pro in the Used Marketplace dropped at about 96 cents per day.

So now we have seen the relationship between supply, time, and price. How do the three work together? An important point to notice is that, over time, there are increasingly more used listings as people upgrade to newer models. You cannot simply peg the variance in price to supply or devaluation, because in reality it is a mixture of these and countless other unmeasureable outside forces that affect the market. Check out this graph comparing supply, price, and time for the Macbook Pro. The jump in used listings starts at about April 1st, 2011, right after the release of a full new line of Macbook Pro's. 

How do these numbers help me in the real world?

Imagine you are considering buying a used Macbook Pro. This data suggests that for every day you wait, the average price of used listings will decrease at about 96 cents a day. So if you wait a month, the average price should drop about 28 dollars. 

Perhaps you are thinking about buying an iPod Touch. Depending on the model, you can expect the average used listing price to drop 10-20 cents per day. If you buy one, use it for 6 month, and then sell it back on Amazon, you can expect the selling price to have dropped only about $27. This is a pretty good option if you are the type of person who likes to keep up-to-date with Apple gadgets. 

How does this apply to other products?

 

Many different products in consumer electronics follow similar trends, but the actual values have to be analyzed on a product-by-product basis. They all act differently; for example, check out this graph illustrating the relationship between time, quanity, and price for the newer model Xbox 360.

 

As you can see, both time and the amount of used listings have almost zero effect on the selling price. This is an example of a used market where the price is very consistent. In this case, the price drops at only about .8 cents per day! So if you bought a used Xbox 360 in February, you could expect the average low listing price to have dropped only about $1.50 total! If you paid attention and sold on a day where the average listing price was relatively high, you could actually make money in this situation. 

 

We hope you’ve liked some of our data analysis at Shopobot. Our entire mission is making you a smarter consumer, so if you have any ideas for what you think might be interesting in our data, let us know!

 

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Editor's note: This is a guest post by Kyle of ten18photography.

DSLR for Beginners

For those looking to buy their first DSLR camera, the Nikon D5100 provides the perfect balance of quality and affordability. An absolute bargain for less than $650, this camera encorporates a staggering number of features into an affordable package. It produces high quality images without adding extra menus and buttons which only confuse the beginning photographer. 

Nikon D5100 Price History 

I recommend pairing the D5100 with the optional 18-55mm kit lens for $100. This basic, lightweight lens offers all the features a beginning photographer needs to capture quality images.

Nikon D5100 with 18-55mm Lens Price History 

While I do recommend the D5100 for beginners, don’t underestimate its feature set. Its advanced components and quality images rival top level professional cameras from a few years ago at a fraction of the price. Digital photography continues to advance rapidly and beginners are reaping the benefits.

Enthusiast

Nikon D7000 Price History

Because of its advanced feature set and versatility, the D7000 is a match made in heaven for the photography enthusiast who likes options. Different from the Nikon D5100, this model provides more focus points, longer battery life, a hefty, weather-sealed magnesium alloy body, two memory card slots, and slightly higher image resolution. 

Nikon 18-200mm Price History

For all purpose use, pair this camera with the Nikon 18-200mm lens. Not only does it offer the same zoom range as two kit lenses combined, it has a more sturdy, professional feel. The 18-200mm lens allows photographers of all abilities to adapt quickly to their situation without changing lenses. For this reason, it’s popular among amateurs and professionals alike. It is well worth the $800 price tag for many users who will find it to be the only lens they will ever need.

I can’t believe how much Nikon packs into the D7000! At $1150 or less, the D7000 easily competes with cameras three times its price. It’s tempting to grab this camera, sell mine, and pocket the $1000 difference. It’s that good!

Advanced Amateurs & Professionals

Nikon D700 Price History

Among the three professional cameras made by Nikon, the D700 provides the best value and quality combination. Advanced amateurs and professionals will appreciate esoteric features such as a full frame sensor, higher ISO sensitivity, more focus points, and a larger viewfinder. The significantly higher price tag of $2700 is worth it for only those able to take advantage of these features.

Those purchasing the D700 with a larger budget should consider Nikon’s professional level lenses. Users of the D700 should avoid any lenses with DX in the model name. These lenses are made for smaller sensor, consumer level cameras and cannot take advantage of the D700’s larger sensor.

Nikon released the D700 more than 3 years ago, making it one of their older models. Photographers considering this camera may wish to hold out for the imminent model update. For those who cannot wait, the D700 is still a great investment.

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Wow -- what a week!

Shopobot's announcement of a public beta and investment from Google and AOL got picked far and wide:

TechCrunch: Price Tracking Service Shopobot Raises Funding From Google Ventures, AOL And Others

Shopobot is similar to airfare price tracker Yapta, but for retail products. Considering the fluctuations that take place on sites like Amazon or other retailers, Shopobot could provide a very desirable service it expands to a number of verticals beyond just electronics.

Gizmodo: Shopobot Tracks Gadgets’ Prices and Tells You When to Leap On Them

The only complaint I have about Shopobot is that it doesn't track eBay prices, but other than that it's a very handy site that will tell you when the best time to purchase a tech item is. So far it's only tracking gadgets and games, but over time I can see Shopobot adding a whole range of categories, pulling in from online stores such as Amazon, Walmart, B&H, Buy.com and more.

New York Times: A Site for Figuring Out the Cheapest Time to Make a Purchase

“It’s kind of an ugly space, and that’s one of the reasons we’re really interested in it,” Mr. Schorzman said. Online retailers frequently change prices to test which one maximizes revenue and to wage price wars with other sites, he said.

Reuters: Google and AOL venture arms fund tool to track retail price changes

“The volatility is really being driven by these algorithmic approaches to pricing,” says Shopobot co-founder and CEO Julius Schorzman. “You have these automated systems that are trying to maximize revenue for retailers online.”

All Things D: Shopobot Tracks Down Seed Money

Shopobot, a service that aims to help consumers time their purchases judiciously by tracking price changes and trends, announced today it had received an undisclosed amount of seed funding from Google Ventures, AOL Ventures, Lucas Nealan, Jump Ventures and several other investors. The company also opened the beta version of its site to the public.

The Street

Online shopping start-up Shopobot announced on Thursday it has raised seed funding from the venture arms of both Google and AOL. The company allows shoppers to track price adjustments for gadgets and other items across the Web, providing consumers with the best time in which to make a purchase.

MercuryNews

Shop til you drop: A San Francisco startup called Shopobot is officially launching Thursday after several months in stealth mode. Cooked up by an ex-Microsoftie and an Amazon.com alum, the site helps find the best deals in cyberspace.

VatorNews: Shopobot launches with seed from Google, AOL

Isn’t it pretty?

As you can see, the little Shopobot robot will let you know if it’s a good idea or not to buy right now, based on the product’s price history. More advanced users can take a look at the graph provided to decide for themselves. And if you’re not quite ready to buy it, you could always click “Follow” to keep an eye on the product.

VentureBeat: Google Ventures-backed Shopobot tells you the best time to buy

Schorzman and Matthews said that they’ve been tweaking the interface so that data geeks can still dig into the numbers, while more casual shoppers aren’t overwhelmed. Ultimately, if you tell Shopobot what you’re looking for and when you’re looking to buy it, the site can give you a straightforward recommendation — buy (if the price is at the low end of its likely price range) or don’t buy (if it’s on the high end). If it’s a “don’t buy”, then Shopobot can send you an alert when the price gets good again. The idea has some similarities with SeatGeek, which recommends the best time to buy tickets for events.

Forbes: Shopobot: a New Toy for Economists

Shopobot is aimed at consumers, allowing them to check price changes. But it might find an interested audience among economists.

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We're looking for some great people to join Shopobot. If you love building great experiences, we'd love to talk!  Drop us a line: founders@shopobot.com

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San Francisco, CA, June 16, 2011 - Shopobot announced its seed funding today from Google Ventures, AOL Ventures, and several strategic investors. Shopobot also opened its website to the public for the first time, revealing a new approach to online shopping where consumers have immediate access and transparency into price changes offered by online retailers.

Shopobot was formed to reveal the volatility of prices for consumer products sold online, and to help consumers use this information to gain an advantage when making purchases. It is not uncommon for retailers to change their prices several times in the course of a week and these changes can often fluctuate by as much as 20 percent. With Shopobot, consumers gain access to price changes, ultimately saving their dollars.

The company was formed in January when the founders were accepted to the AngelPad accelerator program. After their demo day presentation in March, the team received investments from both Google Ventures and AOL Ventures to grow their project.

“We’re huge fans of online shopping, but were shocked when we discovered just how often stores change their prices. We found that stores are becoming extremely sophisticated about testing different price points, and that most shoppers are entirely unaware that these changes are happening,” said Julius Schorzman, Co-Founder and CEO of Shopobot.

“People who buy on the wrong day stand to lose a lot of money,” added David Matthews, Co-Founder and Head of Product at Shopobot. “For example, if we look at a digital camera that currently sells for $399 at a popular store, we see that its price changed seven times over two weeks. Waiting even a single day to purchase can mean the difference between saving or wasting $30 for a consumer. We want to bring transparency to online shopping so people know when they’re seeing a good or bad deal.”

In mid-2010, Julius and David began creating Shopobot, building a prototype for the service. Pricing data is continuously collected and analyzed using proprietary algorithms, and users are given simple recommendations on when and where to buy to get the best price.

One of the distinctions of the Shopobot service is the simplicity of the experience. Thomas Korte, the founder of AngelPad noted, “Shopobot has done an amazing job analyzing massive data sets and continuously changing prices, and turned it into a simple and friendly user experience. They solve a hard problem for users and make it simple to decide when to buy something.”

The investments from Google Ventures and AOL Ventures were followed by investments from domain expert investors such as Lucas Nealan - an early Facebook engineer, and Jump Ventures, as well as international support from investors introduced through the AngelList network. These investments will allow Shopobot to rapidly expand their service from cameras and consumer electronics, into sports equipment, appliances, and other areas. The company has no plans to charge consumers for the service.

About Google Ventures

Google Ventures is the venture capital arm of Google Inc. We seek to discover and help develop great companies, and believe in the power of entrepreneurs to do amazing things. Our investments range from seed to late stage, across a broad range of industries, including consumer Internet, digital media, software, hardware, and biotechnology. We embrace the challenge of helping young companies grow from the proverbial garage to global relevance. For more information, visit www.googleventures.com.

About AOL Ventures

AOL Ventures is the venture capital arm of AOL, focused on early stage investing in technology-centric consumer Internet companies. http://corp.aol.com/products-services/aol-ventures

About AngelPad

AngelPad is a startup incubator based in San Francisco. Founded in 2010 by a team of ex-Googlers, AngelPad helps web- technology startups build better products, attract additional funding and ultimately grow more successful businesses. http://angelpad.org

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We're happy to announce that we're testing embedding Shopobot's price information on certain pages on Steve's Digicams. You can check it out on pages like Samsung's NX100.

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The Shopobot Blog is (almost) officially online.

Stay with us and we'll be posting delicious web goodness for your consumption in no time.

Stay tuned...  :-)

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